In a world where change is constant, today’s nonprofit leaders must balance two intertwined priorities: achieving long-term successful execution on their mission while preparing for disruption. Strategic planning alone—while essential—is no longer enough. To thrive in today’s environment, nonprofits must embed contingency planning and scenario planning into their broader organizational strategy.
At Schultz & Williams, we believe resilience is not built by reacting to crisis—it’s built by planning for possibility. And that starts with understanding how each type of planning plays a distinct, critical role in organizational health.
Understanding the Differences: Planning for a Changing World
While sometimes used interchangeably, strategic planning, contingency planning, and scenario planning are distinct disciplines:
- Strategic Planning charts your organization’s long-term direction—your vision, goals, and the strategies to achieve them. It defines where you’re headed and how you’ll get there under normal conditions.
- Contingency Planning prepares you for unexpected twists and disruptions that could impact your path. It focuses on maintaining essential operations and protecting your mission when things don’t go as planned.
- Scenario Planning helps you imagine different futures—both positive and challenging—and stress-test your strategies against a range of external factors.
Together, these approaches to planning ensure your nonprofit isn’t just visionary—it’s adaptable and future-ready.
Why Now?
The need for comprehensive planning has never been more urgent. In just the past year, more than 25 executive orders have impacted areas as diverse as immigration, education, and diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. Economic volatility, shifting tariff policies, and the pending expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act all add additional uncertainty to the funding landscape.
These pressures are not theoretical. It’s estimated that 60–80% of nonprofits would struggle to operate without current levels of federal funding, according to the Urban Institute’s 2024 report Government Funding Cuts Put Nonprofits at Risk across the Nation. Meanwhile, 70% of nonprofit leaders report feeling the impact of recent policy and economic changes, as noted in the Center for Effective Philanthropy’s 2025 study Challenging Times. Philanthropy continues to play a crucial role, but private giving alone cannot fully fill gaps in public funding.
In short: today’s nonprofit leaders must build strategies that not only support mission fulfillment but also build operational resilience in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
Strategic Planning as the Foundation
Strategic planning remains the cornerstone of nonprofit success. It defines the vision, sets priorities, and aligns resources to achieve mission-driven goals over time. But today’s fast-changing environment demands that strategic plans be built with flexibility in mind. Contingency and scenario planning are critical complements to strategic planning, helping organizations best position themselves to maximize opportunity, stay resilient in the face of change and protect them against the unexpected.
Building Contingency Planning into Your Annual Strategy
Too often, contingency planning is treated as a reactive task—something to be hastily assembled during a crisis. But the most successful organizations treat it as an ongoing discipline, fully integrated into their broader planning cycle.
That means every year, alongside reviewing strategic goals, leadership should be:
- Identifying key organizational vulnerabilities
- Assessing risks to your operating budget and staffing capacity
- Modeling potential disruption scenarios
- Updating action plans that define how the organization would pivot in the face of change
- Establishing clear “triggers” that signal when contingency plans should be activated
By building contingency planning into regular operations, nonprofits ensure that when uncertainty strikes, they can move quickly—not from a place of panic, but from a position of preparation.
The Value of Scenario Planning
Scenario planning further strengthens organizational resilience by challenging leaders to think creatively about what the future might hold. Rather than betting on a single predicted outcome, organizations can model multiple possibilities—an economic downturn, the loss of a major donor, a change in political climate—and test how their strategies hold up across a range of futures.
This kind of thinking doesn’t just protect against risk; it sharpens strategic insight. It empowers leadership teams to spot opportunities others might miss and to navigate change proactively, not reactively.
A Culture of Preparedness
Ultimately, strong strategic, contingency, and scenario planning create more than just operational blueprints. They cultivate a culture of preparedness within organizations. Staff, leadership, and board members alike become more nimble, more collaborative, and more confident in the face of change.
By embedding resilience into every layer of planning, nonprofits not only safeguard their missions—they set themselves up to lead boldly in uncertain times.
Ready to Strengthen Your Planning Process?
At Schultz & Williams, we believe today’s nonprofit leaders must be prepared not just with a strategic vision, but with contingency and scenario planning as core leadership competencies. If you’re ready to deepen your organization’s preparedness, we invite you to join us for our upcoming workshop:
You’ll learn how to incorporate contingency and scenario planning into your organization’s planning efforts—and gain practical tools to strengthen resilience, navigate uncertainty, and safeguard your mission.
Because in a world where change is constant, preparation is power.
